USD to NOK Forecast

If you opt for trading major currencies, especially European ones, the Norwegian Krone should be in your portfolio. USD/NOK is considered to be a great option for both intraday and long-term trading, even though it is not prone to significant fluctuations. Wonder what the USD/NOK rate will be in the coming days, weeks, or even years? This article provides an extensive review of both short-term and long-term NOK price predictions.

Table of Contents

USD/NOK Overview

NOK Price Forecast for Tomorrow and the Coming Weeks

What Affects the NOK Price?

USD/NOK Technical Analysis

USD/NOK Price History and Performance in 2023

How to Predict the Price of NOK

USD to NOK Forecast for 2024

USD to NOK Forecast for 2025

USD to NOK Forecast for 2026

USD to NOK Forecast for 2027

USD to NOK Forecast for 2028

Conclusion: Is NOK a Good Investment?

FAQ

USD/NOK Overview

The official currency of the USA is the dollar, sometimes known as the American dollar. It is also accepted in many other nations around the world. It is also the accepted form of payment for items sold on international marketplaces, including gold and oil. The dollar sign ($) is the representation of the US dollar. Another name for this fiat currency is USD (US dollar).

The national currency of Norway is the Norwegian Krone (NOK), which is managed by Norges Bank, the nation's central bank. Eight generations of banknotes were announced by the bank, including the introduction of new 50 and 500 Krone notes in 2018.

Dollar/Norwegian Krone is one of the most commonly traded currency pairs because of changes in interest rates and the price of oil. Due to its heavy reliance on trade with Britain and the Eurozone, Norway's economy is very susceptible to shifts in those two economies. In our predictions, NOK is the quote currency in the USD/NOK pair.

NOK Price Forecast for Tomorrow and the Coming Weeks

Judging by the AI-generated USD/NOK forecast, NOK is expected to strengthen against the US dollar. Tomorrow, its price is estimated to reach 10.8. Generally, we can witness a slight positive trend forming for the USD/NOK pair – take a look at the forecast by 30rates:

In the coming weeks, NOK is also expected to keep growing by a few cents per day. In March 2024, it can overcome the 11.00 resistance level.

What Affects the NOK Price?

Currencies are exchanged in pairs on the forex markets – they consist of ‘base and quote’ assets. The amount of Norwegian Krone required to purchase one US dollar is indicated by the USD/NOK pair. The quotation currency is the NOK, while the base currency is the USD.

As the world's reserve currency, the US dollar serves as both a predictor of the international economy and a sanctuary for investors in volatile times. As investors strove to safeguard their capital from the uncertainties posed by the Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of a worldwide recession, USD’s value spiked in 2022. An aggressive boost of the US interest rates to combat excessive inflation has also helped the currency.

Among the G10 currencies—the top ten most liquid and actively traded currencies on the foreign exchange markets—is the Norwegian Kroner. The Group of Ten (G10) countries that supply funding to the International Monetary Fund are no longer represented by the G10 currencies.

After Qatar and Russia, Norway is the world's third-largest supplier of natural gas. It also exports a sizable amount of oil. As a result, changes in the price of oil have an impact on the NOK price. The US and Norwegian interest rates have an impact on the value of the Kroner as well. A currency with higher interest rates tends to attract investors seeking better returns on their investments with predictable payouts.

USD/NOK Technical Analysis

Considering the steadily growing value of NOK, the majority of indicators show strong ‘Buy’ signals. Traders opt for adding this asset to their trading account – this is clearly seen if we analyze the daily chart. 5-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts provide the same signal.

A couple of indicators exhibit an overbought state of NOK – i.e., it may face a correction. However, this is not going to happen in the near observable future, because the majority of indicators say it’s high time to buy and open the market.

USD/NOK Price History and Performance in 2023

By casting a retrospective look, we can see that between 2002 and 2008, the pair saw serious volatility as a result of shifting oil prices and the global financial crisis. Trade, especially with the UK and the Euro zone, is a major driver of Norway's economy. Changes in those economies thus have a big impact on the Krone.

Since 2019, there have been several attempts for NOK to strengthen, but the American economy turned out to be more thriving. USD collapsed during the Covid outbreak in 2019-2021, however, the dollar’s weakness ended in late 2022-2023.

The Norwegian Krone turned out to be the weakest G10 currency in 2023 due to banking sector unrest and a pause in Norges Bank’s rate growth, while American and some European central banks raised their interest rates sharply. The crown fell to a three-year low vs the euro in April 2023 and to a five-month low versus the dollar in March 2023 as high-beta, or riskier, currencies were shocked by banking sector issues.

2023 was marked by two revival attempts for NOK. By January 2023, USD faced the bottom, finding support at the 9.83 level. Then it climbed to nearly 11.2 before facing a harsh nosedive to 9.94 in July. The pattern is now repeating itself: it fell once again by the beginning of 2024, but seems to be slowly regaining its position, being caught in a moderate uptrend.

How to Predict the Price of NOK

To forecast the USD/NOK exchange rate, take into account the following aspects:

• Keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation percent, unemployment stats, and interest rates) in Norway. These metrics provide insights into the overall health of the economy, which in turn can influence the price of the Norwegian Krone.
• Track the monetary policy of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, and how it changes the interest rates.
• Norway is a major oil exporter, and therefore, asset prices can significantly impact the Norwegian economy and the Krone’s value. Monitoring global oil prices and geopolitical events that affect oil supply and demand will help you predict NOK's price movements.
• Political stability in Norway defines investors’ confidence and, consequently, the value of the Norwegian currency. Also, global events such as trade disputes, conflicts, or diplomatic tensions can impact investor sentiment and currency values.
• Analyze price charts and technical indicators (moving averages, support and resistance levels, and more complex instruments) to identify patterns and trends in NOK price movements.
• Pay attention to market sentiment and investor behavior towards the Norwegian Krone. Factors such as risk appetite, speculation, and the attitude towards the Norwegian economy altogether contribute to the Krone’s price dynamics.
• Consider the broader global economic state, including trade tensions, currency movements, and economic data releases from major economies.
• Understand the correlation between NOK and other assets, such as commodities, currencies, and equities. They can have a positive or negative correlation with the Krone.
• Some currencies exhibit seasonal patterns due to factors such as tourism, trade flows, or agricultural cycles. Analyzing historical data for seasonal trends in NOK's price movements will provide you with additional insights for prediction.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2024

This year will be marked by moderate growth for NOK against the US dollar, especially during Q1-Q2 2024. As expected for other European currencies, the Norwegian Krone may face retracement in July, but USD will recover in August or September. 2024 can finish at a level above 11.00.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2024

USD to NOK Forecast for 2025

Following the pattern of 2024, the Krone forecast stays pessimistic – the rate may climb above its 11.00 quote. The first half of 2025 can bring moderate growth for USD by around 0.2 points, which could then accelerate in Q3-Q4, bringing the USD/NOK rate to 11.9 or even higher.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2025

USD to NOK Forecast for 2026

WalletInvestor uses pretty much the same patterns when providing a USD to NOK price prediction for 2026. In Q1, the exchange rate may overcome the 12.00 barrier and grow by 0.6-0.7 points during the whole year, facing a throwback in July.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2026

USD to NOK Forecast for 2027

If WalletInvestor’s optimistic scenario plays out, we may witness USD/NOK climbing above the 13.00 level, which is an unprecedented height for the last 10 years. Considering that the US dollar may strengthen again for many reasons, such a prediction may come true.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2027

USD to NOK Forecast for 2028

Technical analysis by WalletInvestor shows that USD/NOK can reach 14.00 during 2028. However, this is a very long term, and too many aspects can interpose. The table below displays a very optimistic scenario for the US dollar. However, it is not likely that the American economy will rise as high – there were no such occasions in the last 10 years.

USD to NOK Forecast for 2028

Conclusion: Is NOK a Good Investment?

Norway gains significantly from high energy prices since it is a major energy exporter. This leads to a sizable surplus and enables Norway to sustain a fiscal surplus while the majority of other nations are facing deficits. But the Norwegian economy is not benefiting from this oil money. Rather, it is deposited into the sovereign account, which makes foreign investments. The central bank of Norway even purchases significant quantities of foreign exchange to counterbalance the substantial tax revenues from the energy industry. As a result, the Krone does not depend so much on energy rates.

Despite the wealth of the Norwegian economy, NOK is facing a difficult period – investors aren’t rushing to put their money into this asset because they believe interest rates are low. So if you’re considering long-term investments in NOK, think twice, because it is unclear which economy will turn out to be stronger – the American or the Norwegian. Still, if you are searching for low-volatility pairs to trade in short and mid terms, USD/NOK might be a nice addition to your portfolio.

FAQ

Is it profitable to invest in the USD/NOK forex pair?

Everything depends on the time frame you’re opting for. If you want to make a long-term investment, NOK is not the best option because the Norwegian economy has been declining since 2022, and there are no signs of an upcoming revival. However, if you consider short-term USD/NOK pair trades, this can be a suitable, low-risk option.

Why has USD/NOK been dropping?

It’s happening because Norway’s economy is experiencing a decline. Profits received from oil sales are not pumped back into the local economy, and the Norges Bank is failing to provide appealing interest rates, which repels international investors. At the same time, the American economy is not exhibiting such signs of regression, even despite threatening inflation rates.

What will the USD/NOK FX rate be worth in five years (2028)?

According to an AI-based USD/NOK prediction, which includes historial price performance and basic market trends, the USD/NOK rate will keep in the range between 13.3 to 14.05 during 2028. However, this is quite an optimistic scenario, and many aspects can intervene during several years.

Is USD/NOK a Buy, Sell or Hold?

The majority of technical indicators on hourly, daily, and weekly time frames provide ‘Buy’ signals. Considering that NOK keeps losing its positions against the US dollar, and no signs of revival are seen, now is a good moment for entering the market. No matter which term you prefer – short, mid, or long – USD/NOK has every chance to generate dividends, because it is not a high risk asset. If you don’t want to use large volumes for trading, you can opt for leverage.

When is the best time to trade USD/NOK?

If you want to start trading intraday, you should be aware that it is possible to operate forex pairs around the clock. However, the best time to trade Norwegian currency is when it is more volatile. Typically, the highest activity on the USD/NOK pair is observed between 1 PM and 5 PM GMT, when the majority of Forex users are online.

Risk warning: If you plan to trade USD/NOK, do your own research and invest carefully. Make sure your investment decision is based on a thorough market analysis, because such pairs are extremely sensitive to news and market sentiments, not to mention their dependence on national economies.